Summary
- There is a long history of terrorism in Africa but the increasing growth of terrorism in Africa in the last thirty years, combined with its population explosion should be a worry to all Africans and the world
- The growth of radical Islamist terrorism since the early 1990s is not only threatening stability in Africa, but if the continent becomes a laboratory for Jihadi terrorism, it threatens the rest of the world too.
- The effect of Islamic terrorism is most recently demonstrated in Mozambique, where the most important project in the history of that nation has been curtailed by terror activity.
- Islamic terrorism thrives in a complex African terror ecosystem of funding, fragility, sympathy and support, which makes it difficult to defeat.
Terrorist activity in Africa used to be localized. In the 20th century liberation movements fought armed conflicts against colonial powers. These armed conflicts ended when political ends, like independence, were achieved. But Islamist terrorism has an even longer history in Africa. In Nigeria between 1802 and1804, the forerunner of Boko Haram, Uthman dan Fody, Fulani herder and religious leader, declared his jihad to “purify” Islam.
Africa has the fastest growing human population in the world but is also the poorest and hungriest continent. The problems created by the Islamist terrorism explosion on the continent in the last thirty years, along Africa’s population explosion, should be a worry to Africans and the world.
A recent study by the Middle East Africa Research Institute (MEARI) points out that in the 16 June 2022 edition of its Al-Naba publication, Islamic State (IS) declared Africa the land of Hijra and Jihad and called on its members to relocate to African countries. The continent is likely seen as the next stronghold for an ‘Islamic Caliphate’”.
MEARI quotes terrorism experts Bacon and Warner “…the African continent is the new leading epicenter of jihadi terrorism in the world today. Alarmingly, the jihadi threat in Africa has not merely worsened: it has reached historically unprecedented levels…”
The explosion in militant Islamist violence in Africa is borne out by new records for violence and fatalities in 2022; with 6,859 episodes of violence involving militant Islamist groups, a 22% increase from 2021. Fatalities from these events increased by 48% to over 19,000 deaths. This is not an anomaly, because violent events linked to militant Islamist groups have increased four-fold over the past decade, as reported by The Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
The concern for all the world should be indications that Africa is becoming a terrorism laboratory. The 2014 Boko Haram kidnapping of girls from Chibok School in Nigeria could plausibly be regarded as a forerunner of Russian abductions of children in the war in Ukraine, as well as Hamas taking child and other hostages in Israel on October 7th last year.
Terrorism in Africa is a problem for the entire global community, but devastating for Africans, because Islamist terrorism exacerbates poverty and hunger. There are 2 million people displaced by Islamist terrorism in Burkina Faso. Terrorist destabilization requires enormous humanitarian assistance, which increased by 35% between 2022 and 2023 in Burkina Faso alone, from 3.5 million to 4.7 million people. Then there is also Sudan.
The Sahel is now the epicenter of jihadist violence. This development follows the retreat of France from its formerly robust role to maintain stability in its former African colonies. The USA has steadily lost influence in Africa to Russia and China, emboldening SAHEL military regimes to oust America from providing military support to fight terrorism in the region. America should urgently adjust its agenda in Africa to become more effective and regain lost influence. A good start would be to support all African governments that are willing to fight Islamist terrorism, including military regimes.
Meanwhile, terrorism is still spreading in Africa. Mozambique, formerly a stable Southern African country with regular elections since its civil war ended in 1994, has been fighting ISIS-Mozambique, (aka Ansar al-Sunna), since 2017. Regular attacks in the Northern Mozambican provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula, killed 3,800 civilians and displaced 700,000 people.
These attacks destroy economic activity, demonstrated by the TotalEnergies declaration of Force Majeure in March 2021 for its massive gas project offshore Northern Mozambique. Despite military anti-insurgency support by South African and Rwandan special forces, as well as contributions by the USA, UK and EU, the project is unable to proceed until security improves sufficiently for Force Majeure to be lifted. Following compromised elections in October 2024, demonstrations in the streets of Maputo, mostly by young people, against the election outcome tilts the country into further instability, making it unlikely that the government will be able to lift force majeure in the first quarter of 2025. As a result, poverty and joblessness will grow.
The discovery in 2010 of a vast reserve of natural gas in the Rovuma basin promised to be an economic game changer for Mozambique and the Southern African region. The announcement in 2019 of a US $20 billion Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) project to take advantage of the 65 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas would not only make Mozambique a major supplier in the global gas market but could also provide energy access for Mozambique and its energy hungry neighbours, including South Africa. SASOL, the South African oil and gas company is running out of supplies from its fields in southern Mozambique. Now, all these promises of wealth, jobs and development are held to ransom by ISIS-Mozambique and street protests. The priority of the USA should be to help fight terrorism in Mozambique and leave the fight for democracy to the Mozambican people.
Islamist terrorism in Africa simply must be defeated to remove this threat to the world and to stability in Africa. Solutions must start with a recognition that what has been done before has not worked. Islamic terrorism thrives in a complex terror ecosystem of funding, fragility, sympathy and support, which makes it difficult to defeat.
Defeat requires more than vastly improved military support. More effective anti-corruption actions, bolstering the rule-of-law, affordable energy access and economic growth are all elements of a comprehensive plan to defeat Islamic terrorism. African governments must work closely with western governments that are serious about providing adequate support for fighting terrorism in all these areas, without dictating culture and western ideals. Failure to do so now will exacerbate the problem until it becomes a matter of vast international crisis.
Scenarios
Unlikely: The next American administration decides it is a priority to defeat Islamic terrorism in Africa. This will require recognition of the threat to the USA and Europe from the growth of Islamist terrorism in Africa, a complete reassessment of its Africa policy and a new agenda for Africa in every respect. The new agenda takes a hard-nosed approach to working with all African countries eager to defeat terrorism, integrating military support, efforts to disrupt terror funding and operations with anti-corruption and rule-of-law support and creating market led growth through investment in affordable energy access for Africans. As anti-terrorism strategies in partner countries make Africans safer, wealthier and freer, more countries join the initiative until Islamic terrorism is defeated in Africa.
Likely: A world distracted by wars in Ukraine and Israel, pay lip service to defeating Islamic terrorism in Africa, by following the same playbook as the last thirty years. As a result, Burkina Faso falls and becomes an Islamic terrorist state, destabilizing hitherto stable countries on the African Atlantic coast. Indian ocean states like Mozambique become increasing destabilized, with terrorism spilling over into Southern African and other East African countries. Desperate, they displace American and European security for Russian and Turkish support until massive refugee waves flow into Europe, UK and USA, and African based terrorism directly devastates the lives of citizens in the developed world.
François Baird is an Africa expert, and a founder of the FairPlay trade movement and international consulting firm, Baird’s CMC.
