American newspaper columnists, Substack posters, X users, talking heads, and other analysts all knew when and how Israel would respond to the Iranian drone, rocket, and missile attack. Or not respond. They were convinced the Iranian attack was designed to fail because Iran knew Israel would shoot down the weapons — or that it was designed to succeed but failed anyhow. They are sure that the Iranians warned President Biden — or they didn’t — or that he warned them. In short, they had no idea what they were talking about, but their opinions didn’t matter much anyhow.
Political leaders matter more, and from President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and a variety of others, they all weighed in publicly, calling for Israeli “restraint” for fear of escalation into a major regional war.
But that war is already underway.
The regional war actually began in 1979. The fact that Iran tried to kill thousands upon thousands of Israelis in this assault was simply another escalation. That Israel — aided by the US and Arab states — had the weapons to stop them and, finally, to retaliate directly, doesn’t change that fact.
Iran piously moaned that international law was violated when its “diplomats” were killed in the “Iranian embassy” in Damascus. (Actually, they were Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) terrorists in an office building). No mention was made of Iran’s violations of international law, its use of terror proxies against foreign officials and embassies around the world — attacks that left hundreds dead and wounded — as well as taking Americans hostage for 444 days in Tehran. Iran has killed foreign diplomats, led a massive attack on Jews in Argentina, and targeted American embassies and military positions.
Iranian-supplied weapons and training were responsible for thousands of American deaths and injuries in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran passed off responsibility for the 2019 drone attack on Aramco oil processing facilities in Saudi Arabia to its Houthi proxy, but separate investigations by the US, the UK/Germany/France, and the UN deemed Iran responsible. Iranian-supplied weapons and training are also the backbone of Hamas and Hezbollah attacks on Israel, as well as militia attacks on Americans in Iraq, and Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
Iran is responsible for civilian suffering in every country where it operates. The people of Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Gaza, and the West Bank, as well as Iranian civilians, pay the price of Iranian government aggression — and hundreds of thousands died for it in Syria alone.
So why is Iran waging This war? It is not for the “liberation” of “Palestine” or for Jerusalem. In fact, it is only in part for the destruction of Israel.
Iran’s goals are broad and deep, and the instability it has produced is in the service of its ultimate vision. The first part of that vision is the establishment of Shiite rule across the Middle East, which accounts for the war against Israel, but also Sunni countries from the Gulf to Jordan. It’s also no coincidence that Iran’s proxy, the Houthis, attack and disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, which is bordered by and essential to Sunni countries and Israel. This also accounts for the appeasement of Iran by Sunni Qatar and Turkey.
The farther-reaching goal is the destabilization of the Mediterranean countries and the Sunni states of North Africa, most particularly Morocco, whose king is a direct descendant of the Prophet Mohammed. To this end, Iran supports militias in the second tier of Africa, both Sunni and Shiite. Western-supported countries with large Christian minorities — Sudan, Chad, Mali, Niger, and Mauritania — are the targets of militia violence, famine, and wreckage.
For the instigation and continuance of this 45-year war, the West has exacted no price from the Iranian regime beyond periodic economic sanctions, UN weapons/technology sanctions that were largely ignored, and the elimination of Qassam Soleimani. It should be clear by now that whether the immediate victim of Iranian aggression is Israel, the US, or Saudi Arabia, the timing and escalation of attacks is determined in Tehran.
This is what appeasement produces.
Israel understands what the pundits and politicians did not. A little-remarked-upon facet of the Israeli strike was that Israel hit all of Iran’s close proxies, in addition to the head of the snake. In addition to going after the Islamic Republic directly, Israel also targeted proxies in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. And someone destroyed an IRGC headquarters in Iraq — one might assume that whoever did it had the same motivation.
Deterring Iran will not be easy. Israel took the first step, but only with a common understanding and mutual support will it be possible for the US and its allies to end Iran’s war.
We’re not there yet.
